Politics

Trump Retakes Small Lead In Vital Swing State He Won In 2016

Advertisement


OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.


In a significant shift, former President Donald Trump has regained the lead from President Joe Biden in a crucial swing state that he won in 2016 but narrowly lost in 2020, according to a new survey.

The new Marist College Poll found that Trump is leading Biden 47–45 percent in Pennsylvania, though that is well within the survey’s margin of error, Fox News reported.

Democratic-turned-independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polled at 3% in the survey, with Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West each at 1% and 2% undecided.

Among the smaller pool of likely voters in the upcoming presidential election, the Republican nominee is maintaining a 48% to 46% lead over the Democratic incumbent in a multi-candidate race, Fox News reported.

In 2016, Trump achieved a historic win by becoming the first Republican in almost thirty years to carry Pennsylvania. This state is traditionally considered part of the Democratic stronghold in the northeastern and midwestern regions.

Advertisement

Trump’s victory over two-time presidential loser Hillary Clinton was narrow in the state, but it was nonetheless an impressive victory.

Some four years later, though, Biden narrowly carried his native state.

The poll from Marist, conducted June 3-6, points to problems for Biden with parts of the Democratic Party’s base.

“While still strong, Biden has lost his formidable support among black voters. 68% break for Biden to 23% for Trump. Biden handily won the support of most black voters in the 2020 presidential election, 92% to 7% for Trump,” an analysis of the polling data said.

The latest poll shows a surge in support for Trump among voters under the age of 45 in Pennsylvania. In the previous election, Biden won this group by 24 points, but the recent survey suggests that Biden’s lead over Trump has narrowed to just two points.

But the survey also found that, “Trump’s advantage among older voters has evaporated. He carried voters 45 or older by 12 percentage points in 2020. Now, three percentage points separate Trump (48%) and Biden (45%) among this group.”

Fox adds: “While Trump holds the edge over Biden in the latest polling in most of the key swing states, and while his fundraising has surged in the wake of his conviction two weeks ago in the first criminal trial of a current or former president, Trump and the Republican National Committee (RNC) are currently facing a large deficit to the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) when it comes to grassroots out reach and get-out-the-vote efforts. The Trump campaign along with the RNC and the Pennsylvania GOP last week opened their first campaign office in Pennsylvania. In comparison, the Biden re-election campaign, the DNC and Pennsylvania Democrats spotlight that they have 24 coordinated offices and hundreds of staffers across the Commonwealth.”

In May, a survey found that Trump is maintaining his lead in most of the critical swing states heading into the summer months of his campaign ahead of his likely GOP nomination during the Republican Party’s July convention in Milwaukee.

A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of registered voters, conducted from May 7th to 13th, found that Trump holds a four-point lead over Biden across all swing states.

The former president leads by five points in Arizona, seven points in North Carolina, three points in Georgia, two points in Pennsylvania, and one point in Wisconsin.

Trump and Biden were tied in Nevada, while Biden holds a narrow one-point lead over Trump in Michigan. The poll of 4,962 registered swing state voters has a margin of error of one point.

Although Trump leads in most swing states, the race has tightened since last month, when he had stronger advantages, particularly in Wisconsin and Georgia, the Daily Wire noted.

The survey also revealed a relatively pessimistic outlook on the economy, with 55 percent of respondents stating that the economy in their state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 45 percent who believe it is moving in the right direction.

Advertisement

Test your skills with this Quiz!

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Most Popular

To Top