OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
Another poll has former President Donald Trump smiling. According to a new PRRI Research/Ipsos survey, Trump is gliding past President Joe Biden in some of the most important swing states, roughly a year out from the 2024 election.
The poll found Biden edging past Trump in a national two-person race, 48–46 percent, with 6 percent saying they did not prefer either candidate, according to Breitbart News.
“However, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, leading Biden by a difference of six points—49 percent to the 80-year-old’s 43 percent,” the outlet added, citing the survey’s results.
Previous surveys have also shown Trump leading Biden in the critical swing states.
Voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were polled by Bloomberg/Morning Consult, and their results showed that Trump was ahead of Biden by 4 percentage points due to widespread disapproval of the vice president’s handling of the economy.
Trump has a 5-point lead over Biden in Georgia, a 4-point lead over Biden in Arizona, a 2-point lead in Wisconsin, a 1-point lead in Wisconsin, and a 1-point lead in Pennsylvania. According to the survey, Biden is ahead of Trump by three points in Nevada, and the two candidates are neck and neck in Michigan.
In the seven swing states, 49% of voters said Bidenomics was bad for the economy. This is the term the White House has used to describe Vice President Joe Biden’s economic agenda.
In those seven states, 46% of undecided voters think Bidenomics is bad for the economy, while 41% either don’t know enough about it or have no opinion.
The survey found that 14% of voters who said they would vote for the president in 2020 now say they would vote for Trump, are undecided, or will not vote at all.
Only 9% of Trump voters in 2020 said they would vote for Joe Biden in 2024, while 91% of Trump voters in 2020 said they would vote for Trump again.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: PRRI/Ipsos (conducted 8/25-30, released today)
Biden 48% (+2)
Swing States (AZ, GA, NV, MI, PA, WI)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 25, 2023
Trump’s team has been quick to point to the latest poll showing the former president ahead in swing states, taking it as evidence of the candidate’s strength in the general election despite claims from some of his rivals that Trump can’t beat Biden.
The Biden campaign was more skeptical, pointing to the midterm and special elections over the past two years in which Democrats performed better than expected as evidence that polls are not always accurate predictors of election outcomes.
“Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later. Don’t take our word for it: last year, Bloomberg, who published today’s poll, predicted a ‘100%’ likelihood of a recession, only to say days ago that the U.S. economy is strong and “defying the odds,’” Kevin Munoz, a Biden campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. “Or a year out from the 2022 midterms, when they similarly predicted a grim forecast for President Biden.”
Biden is seeking re-election and is almost certainly going to be the Democratic nominee, while Trump is leading the Republican primary field by double digits in virtually every state and national poll in 2024. In fact, another GOP candidate, talk radio host and author Larry Elder, dropped out of the race on Thursday and endorsed Trump.
The survey “found that 48% of respondents in swing states would probably or definitely vote for Trump, compared to just 41% for Biden. Though Biden is narrowly favored overall by likely voters, with 43% favoring him compared to 42% for Trump, the Republican front-runner could win 270 Electoral College votes by seizing the swing states,” the Washington Examiner reported.